European Union’s 19th Sanction Package on Russia

Russian Shahed drones violating Polish and Romanian airspaces, EU’s Kyiv office attacked and damaged by Russian attacks and the continual evasion of sanctions by loopholes. These actions escalated the tension between the EU and Russia and with that, the 19^th Sanction Package on Russia is presented. The package will begin implementing its enforcement from 1 January, 2027.

EU’s pressure on Russian Crude and Refined Products

Energy, the main driving revenue of the Russian’s war efforts. Starting from the $47.60/BBL price cap on crude, further measures were added to further pressure the Russia’s revenue from the export of crude and other refined products. Third-Country traders after the implementation of 19^th Sanction package will face asset freezes and transaction bans if found to be aiding Russia’s efforts to evade sanctions or purchasing above price cap.

India and China remain Russia’s top importer of crude since the implementation of the 18^th Sanction Package. At a total of about 15,884 Ktons of crude in the month of July 2025, it does not seem that the 2 countries would slow down the import of crude oil from Russia.

Indian and Chinese Crude Import from Russia

Figure 1. Russian Crude Import to India and China. Source: Trademap.org

Additionally, a further of 118 shadow fleet vessels have been added to the sanctioned list. With these measures, it places stricter enforcement on the Russia’s efforts to evade the sanctions to drive her war efforts.

Full transaction ban on Russia’s LNG export

Comparing the 18^th and 19^th sanction packages’ stance on LNG exports by Russia: a full transaction ban will be implemented instead of only a ban on LNG terminal services.

LNG Dutch Title Transfer Facility Swap Jan Year 2

Figure 2. Dutch TTF LNG Jan Prices. Source: Curveseries

Upon the announcement of the 19^th Sanction Package, prices for Dutch TTF did not show any erratic movement.

Impacts

EU’s 19^th Sanction Package seeks to put additional pressure on Russia in order to stop the war in Ukraine. Given the proposed date of 1^st January 2027, supply chains could have sufficient time to adjust and adapt, reducing the impact on the trade flows. The impact on crude and LNG still remain to be seen.

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